Putin: "No Ukraine War If Trump Were President"; Trump: "No Deal Until There's A Deal"


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Key Points at a Glance

  1. Putin’s Claims:
    • “No War Under Trump”: Putin stated if Trump had been U.S. president in 2022, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine. He blamed Biden’s policies (like pushing for Ukraine to join NATO) for triggering the conflict.
    • Agreement with Trump: Putin confirmed he trusts Trump’s ability to negotiate peace, citing their past “good business-like” relationship.
  2. Trump’s Response:
    • “No Deal Yet”: Trump said progress was made, but “no deal until there’s a deal.”
    • Next Steps: Plans to call Ukraine’s Zelensky and NATO leaders. Putin invited Trump to Moscow for follow-up talks.
  3. Meeting Details:
    • Location: Anchorage, Alaska.
    • Agenda: Ending the Ukraine war, restoring U.S.-Russia relations, and economic cooperation.
    • Vibe: Both leaders seemed optimistic but revealed no specifics.

What They Discussed

  • Russia’s Demands:
    • Ukraine must give up territory (Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea).
    • Ukraine must stay out of NATO and reduce its military.
    • Remove current Ukrainian leadership (regime change).
  • U.S. Position:
    • Trump hinted at security guarantees for Ukraine (details unclear).
    • Warned of “very severe economic consequences” if talks fail.
  • Outcome:
    • No final agreement, but both sides called talks “productive.”

Simplified Context

  • Why Ukraine Matters:
    • NATO Tension: Russia sees Ukraine joining NATO as a threat to its borders. The U.S. and Europe have supported Ukraine’s membership.
    • Territorial Dispute: Russia claims parts of Ukraine; Ukraine refuses to surrender land.
  • Trump’s Role:
    • Criticized Biden for handling of Ukraine, claiming he could end the war faster.
    • Suggested sanctions on Russian oil or tariffs if talks fail.

Reactions

  • Ukrainian Government:
    • Zelensky wasn’t invited to the summit. He insists any deal must be approved by Ukrainians via referendum.
  • Western Media & Critics:
    • Accuse Putin of shifting blame to Biden.
    • Worry Trump might concede too much to Russia (e.g., accepting land grabs).
  • Conservative Voices:
    • Praise Trump’s diplomacy: “He’s the only one who can fix this.”
    • Blame Biden for “provoking” Russia with NATO expansion.

What’s Next?

  • Potential Scenarios:
    1. Deal Stalls: War continues; sanctions on Russia stay.
    2. Ceasefire: Temporary pause in fighting, but no long-term solution.
    3. Land Swap: Ukraine cedes territory for peace (unlikely, as Ukraine’s constitution bans this).
  • Market Impact:
    • Oil prices could drop if sanctions ease; defense stocks might fall if peace nears.

Why This Matters

  • Global Security: A U.S.-Russia deal could reshape alliances and end Europe’s deadliest conflict since WWII.
  • U.S. Politics: Trump aims to bolster his legacy as a peacemaker; critics fear undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Bottom Line: The Alaska summit set the stage for possible peace talks, but major hurdles remain. The world is watching to see if Trump can deliver what Biden couldn’t—or if this is just political theater.

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